Fuente: BofAML's Macneil Curry. Zerohedge.com
Macneil Curry warns evidence continues to say that this is a very late stage advance from which a greater correction is forthcoming. The recent deterioration in breadth (52wk highs failing to keep track with price), the negative seasonal period and divergences between the broader indexes say that risk/reward is skewing to the downside. Bottom Line: "The S&P 500 is vulnerable."
While the trend in the S&P500 is still higher, with potential for a near term push towards 2000; this is a very late stage advance from which we look for a medium term correction. 1944 (the June-26 low) is key. Below here confirms a top and turn...
Breadth...
The bearish divergence for new 52-week highs from last May points to fewer and fewer new 52-week highs as the S&P 500 has continued to rally to new all-time highs. This suggests weaker internals.
The divergence in new 52-week highs from last May is a sign of a maturing rally from late 2012.
and Seasonals...
With President Obama in his second term, 2014 is an incumbent mid-term.2014 is following the incumbent midterm year YTD through June. The pattern calls for a June/July peak ahead of a pullback into September. This has the potential to support large and mega caps relative to small caps.
VIX DAILY CHART
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