"Sell in may and go away"

Fuente: safehaven.com

The Half-Year Patterns of Nine Selected Countries

The charts below show the chained stock market performance in nine of the eleven countries during the summer months in red, during the winter months in green as well as the full year returns (=actual performance of the index) in blue.

Note: the charts are linearly scaled, as a result of which the performance patterns of the summer and winter half-year periods visually don't appear to add up to the full year performance.

Canada: Summer Half-Year vs. Winter Half-Year

The winter half-year even beats the full year!
Source: Seasonax

China: Summer Half-Year vs. Winter Half-Year

Prices rise almost as strongly in the winter months as over the full year
Source: Seasonax

France: Summer Half-Year vs. Winter Half-Year

The winter half-year beats the full year significantly!
Source: Seasonax

Germany: Summer Half-Year vs. Winter Half-Year

Once again the winter half-year clearly beats even the year as a whole!
Source: Seasonax

Japan: Summer Half-Year vs. Winter Half-Year

If one employs the "sell in May" strategy, even Japan is in a long term bull market
Source: Seasonax

Korea: Summer Half-Year vs. Winter Half-Year

During the winter prices rise almost as much as over the year as a whole
Source: Seasonax

Taiwan: Summer Half-Year vs. Winter Half-Year

In Taiwan the summer half-year is deeply in the red
Source: Seasonax

United Kingdom: Summer Half-Year vs. Winter Half-Year

It suffices to be invested during the winter months
Source: Seasonax

US: Summer Half-Year vs. Winter Half-Year

The winter half-year beats the summer half-year, but not the full year
Source: Seasonax

In all of the markets shown here it was sensible to sell in early May - as the markets either posted losses or gains of less than one percent in the summer months in these countries. Investing in these markets during the summer was barely worth it: After all, by employing the "sell in May" strategy, one is also exposed to less risk because one is only invested half of the time.

Detailed Results by Country

The following table shows the half-year results of the eleven countries in detail. Half-year periods in which it was profitable to be invested on a risk-adjusted basis are highlighted in green. Half-year periods that generated losses are highlighted in red.

Overview of Country Selection: Half-Year Results

Investing during the summer period was not profitable Source: Seasonax