sábado, 17 de enero de 2015
Petróleo: Cerca de pauta estacional alcista
Fuente: By Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Christopher Mistal
Crude oil has a tendency to bottom in mid-February and then rally through July . It is that early February low that can give traders an edge by buying ahead of a seasonally strong period. Going long crude oil’s July contract on or about February 13 and holding for approximately 60 days has been a profitable trade 25 times in 31 years for an 80.6% win ratio with a cumulative profit of $91,890 (based upon a single futures contract excluding commissions and taxes).
Crude oil’s seasonal tendency to move higher in this time period is partly due to continuing demand for heating oil and diesel fuel in the northern states and partly due to the shutdown of refinery operations in order to switch production facilities from producing heating oil to reformulated unleaded gasoline in anticipation of heavy demand for the upcoming summer driving season. This has refiners buying crude oil in order to ramp up production for gasoline. In recent years, crude has been finding a bottom earlier. Last year, crude was weak the first three weeks of the year before rallying from around $90 per barrel to nearly $108 by mid-June.
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