EEUU: Lejos de batir records

La bolsa americana lleva más de 5 años subiendo sin parar, pero, si pensamos que hemos superado todos los límites, estamos equivocados....




Fuente: Ryan Detrick

So just how old is this bull market when you put it up against some of the others?  As my pal Michael Batnick noted, it has been a very long time since we’ve had a 10% correction and this has a lot of traders worried we’ve gone too long without a much needed correction.

So what about that 10% correction?  By my math, we’ve now gone 34 months without a 10% correction on a closing basis.  We did hit the magical 10% correction land on an intraday basis back in June ‘12, but I’m just talking closes here.  

Since 1950, the current streak is getting up there, but we could go another 34 months and still not be at the all-time streak from the ’90s.  

Another popular streak is the number of days the S&P 500 (SPX) has been above its 200-day moving average.  Turns out, the SPX has closed an amazing 435 straight days above this long-term trendline.  Again, getting up there, but it isn’t unprecedented for this streak to last a little bit longer. 

What about the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)?  Seriously, no market conversation is complete without talking about everyone’s favorite fear/greed indicator.  Since 1990 the VIX has averaged exactly 20.  The funny thing is it usually doesn’t trade around that area for very long.  It’ll spend years well beneath that area, then years well above that area.  

Check out this chart.  For seven years in the ’90s and four years last decade it traded beneath 20.  This current streak is just over two years old.  Once again, this streak is impressive, but it wouldn’t be crazy for it to continue for a very long time.  

Lastly, what about the length of other bull markets?  I mean, that is the best way to gauge just how this bull stacks up, right?  

The current bull market is 65 months old.  It is now older than the ‘03/’07 bull market, but it isn’t anywhere close to the amazing 153 month bulls we saw twice just since ‘75 or the 151 month bull that died in 1961.

What does all of this mean?  Hey, the bull market could die tomorrow for all I know, but I like to take a bigger look at things sometimes.  It might seem like this bull cycle has been going on forever, but it is very possible it could keep going a lot longer if you look at the length of other bull markets.  Be open to it is all I’m saying.