China: tres burbujas mejor que una

Fuente: zerohedge.com

1. Growing credit bubble

China has had the third biggest credit bubble over a 5-year period of any country in our database. Moreover, private sector debt is now 40% above trend and it is more extended than was the case even in the US at the peak of its credit bubble (and the BIS points out that historically, a financial crisis has been preceded by credit being more than 10% above trend).

 2. A record investment bubble

We continue to see the investment share of GDP being higher than any other country in modern history has ever had, even those that went through rapid industrialisation. 

3. A housing bubble

Finally, we think that there is a clear cut housing bubble. Almost by the nature of a bubble, the participants are reluctant to acknowledge that it is one. But three factors indicate that it is a bubble:

• The size of real estate as a share of GDP: This is now triple that of the US at its peak and similar to peak levels in Spain and Ireland (Moody's claim that real estate is around 23% of GDP, directly and indirectly);
• Overbuild: Housing starts are 12% above housing sales, and vacancy rates, according to the SHFO are 15% to 23%. Inventories in third and fourth-tier cities are now equivalent to 5 years' worth of demand, and 18% of completed homes have become vacant. 

Artículo completo:

www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-18/chinas-three-bubbles-and-what-could-cause-them-burst