EEUU: Ni rastro de bajistas

Fuente: Bolsacanaria.info






Fuente: Ryan Detrick

The big news today isn’t coming from the economy or world events, it is the fact the number of bears in the US Advisors’ Sentiment Report came in at their lowest level since February 1987 at just 13.3%.

This matters because many use this poll as a contrarian indicator.  The thinking goes if there are no bears left, then we could be near a major peak as there is no one left to buy as everyone is bullish.  Lastly, this poll looks at what newsletter writers are thinking.  

Then the fact the last time the bears were beneath 14% was in 1987 and you have all the ingredients for an intriguing headline as well.  Now before you go out and sell all your stocks, remember the S&P 500 (SPX) gained +16.6% the six months after the late February signal in 1987.  Sure, we had the one-day crash of 20% later in October, but there were some spectacular gains to be had for a long time first.

My point is it is so hard to truly quantify exactly what this means or when it truly becomes bearish.  Sure, it is a major concern, as too many could be getting excited right at the wrong time.  The best time to have been buying was probably a month ago when everyone was in a panic that the long-awaited 10% correction was finally coming.