Fuente: Brian Gilmartin. Ryan Detrick
Hace 3 semanas ya comentamos otro indicador que va de la mano de los indices:
http://rastreandovalor.blogspot.com.es/2014/07/el-empleo-marca-el-camino-de-los-indices.html
Earnings continue to move higher, confirming the new highs in the SPX. Not much wrong with this picture.
That chart above looks pretty correlated and you’d be right, as earnings and the SPX sport a 91% correlation.
So is it really that simple? Earnings matter, absolutely, as they drive longer-term trends. Still, in the near-term, anything can honestly happen.
With some more data from Brian, check out the year-over-year earnings growth and the SPX annual returns. You’ll find some years had good earnings growth with poor SPX returns, and vice versa. My favorite example is last year gained just 5% earnings growth, but the SPX soared 30%. It gained a similar 6% earnings growth in 2002 and the SPX tanked 22%.
Using the 2014 estimate of total SPX earnings of $117.41, the SPX sports a P/E ratio of 16.8. Going back to 1985, the average P/E has been 17.9. Yes, the 1990s were an outlier, still the chart below is worth sharing. Maybe things aren’t as stretched as most think?
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