24 diciembre 2018:
20 octubre 2018:
@hks55
miércoles, 26 de diciembre de 2018
De actualidad....
If you are out of the market at the time of fall, it is unlikely you would be in the market at the time of rise.
martes, 25 de diciembre de 2018
Bancos: mala inversión desde hace 30 años
Bancos alemanes, nada de nada en 30 años:
The Topix Bank Index in Japan, is still down 90% from the high in 1990:
The European Banks Index is probably on the biggest support in the history of modern banking sector in Europe :
The long term chart of the BKX (USA Banks Index):
lunes, 24 de diciembre de 2018
SP500: mercados alcistas/bajistas
@IGWTreport
The average S&P bear market since 1920 was relatively short, bus severe in drawdown. drawdown: -41% duration: 25 months
lunes, 17 de diciembre de 2018
ETF: OIH en mínimos de muchos años
El problema es que no podemos invertir en ETFs americanos.
OIH : US listed companies involved in oil services to the upstream oil sector, which include oil equipment, oil services, or oil drilling.
sábado, 15 de diciembre de 2018
jueves, 13 de diciembre de 2018
Cruces de medias muy peligrosos
Fuente: Bespoke
The S&P 500 (U.S.) has so far managed to hold above support at 2,600, while its 10-year chart still looks relatively bullish.
The FTSE 100 (UK) is in a nasty multi-month downtrend with a recent break to new 52-week lows, but price has still yet to test the bottom of its 10-year uptrend channel.
Mexico’s Bolsa index has plummeted 20% from its recent highs, and this drop also broke a key support level on its 10-year chart as well.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 looks somewhat similar to the chart for the S&P 500. The index has been choppy over the last year but hasn’t made a new 52-week low, and it remains well within its 10-year uptrend channel.
The German DAX index looks very negative on both a short-term and long-term technical basis. As shown, the index is a falling knife on the one-year chart, and it just broke below its long-term uptrend channel on the 10-year chart.
While Germany’s DAX has broken down on a 10-year chart, France’s CAC 40 remains slightly above the bottom of its long-term uptrend channel.
Like the French CAC 40, Australia’s ASX 200 has recently made a 52-week low, but it remains above the bottom of its 10-year uptrend channel.
martes, 11 de diciembre de 2018
El fondo JPM Global income cumple 10 años
| US High Yield | 27,60% | Securitized Debt | 4,70% |
| Global Equity | 15,10% | Emerging Markets Equity | 4,20% |
| Preferred Equity | 9,20% | Emerging Markets Debt | 2,10% |
| US Agency Mortgages | 8,50% | convertible bonds | 2,00% |
| European High Yield | 7,20% | Cash | 8,00% |
| Global REITs | 5,90% | Total | 100,00% |
| European Equity | 5,50% |
a: 31.10.2018
Rentabilidad (a: 31.10.2018)
| 1 mes | 3 meses | 1 año | 3 años | 5 años | Desde el lanzamiento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2,72% | -3,14% | -3,69% | 5,60% | 14,20% | 107,05% |
| -3,52% | -2,67% | -1,57% | 14,11% | 24,68% | 145,86% |
| 0,83% | -0,48% | -2,16% | -7,46% | -8,41% | -15,79% |
Fecha de lanzamiento:11 diciembre 2008
Fuente: J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Los datos de rentabilidad son los valores liquidativos (NAV to NAV) con reinversión de rentas brutas.
lunes, 10 de diciembre de 2018
domingo, 9 de diciembre de 2018
11 compañías controlan todo el mercado
Fuente: zerohedge
-Diageo
-Danone
Villavicencio Agua Salus (se exporta para Brasil como Agua del Puma),
Aguas de Lanjarón,
Fontvella,
Volvic,
Evian,
Badoit,
Lattella,
Actimel,
Activia,
Bonafont,
Danonino,
Vitalinea,
Danacol,
Mi Primer Danone,
Oikos,
Densia,
Savia.
Wall Street: las recompras son "peligrosas"
Los investigadores han demostrado que los ejecutivos utilizan las “buybacks” para crear una demanda temporal adicional de acciones lo que aumenta el precio de las acciones a corto plazo a medida que los ejecutivos proceden a las ventas de sus carteras personales.
Fuente: Andrés Llorente
domingo, 2 de diciembre de 2018
viernes, 30 de noviembre de 2018
SKEW: indicador que alerta de periodos bajistas
The SKEW index is a measure of potential risk in financial markets. The Skew Index measures perceived tail-risk in the S&P 500. Tail-risk is a change in the price of the S&P 500 or a stock that would place it on either of the tail ends, or the far edges of the normal distribution curve.
jueves, 29 de noviembre de 2018
El mercado emergente debería pesar más
Marcos Luque
Los mercados desarrollados capitalizan 60 billones de dólares, los emergentes 20.
DM≈75%
EM≈25%
Más de lo que se suele pensar. El ajuste por free float engaña en EM.
miércoles, 21 de noviembre de 2018
martes, 20 de noviembre de 2018
viernes, 16 de noviembre de 2018
Cartera de Corporación Alba
El Valor Neto de los Activos (NAV) se situó en 4.422,3 millones de euros a 30 de septiembre de 2018, equivalente a 75,93 € por acción. La cotización de la acción de Alba a esa misma fecha, 47,95 €, supone un descuento del 36,8% respecto al NAV por acción. “El NAV, tanto en términos absolutos como por acción, ha aumentado un 9,2% y un 7,9% respecto a la misma fecha del año anterior”, explica el holding en su nota de resultados.
www.finect.com/blogs/insiders/articulos/apuestas-corporacion-financiera-alba-caidas-octubre
Cartera de W. Buffett a 30 de septiembre
Fuente: Zerohedge.com
Buffett added 2 new banks to his portfolio, JPMorgan and PNC Financial, adding some 35.7 million shares of the former and 6.1 million shares of the latter, amounting to $4 billion and $829 million as of Sept. 30, respectively.
Why the bank additions? Buffett may be hoping that a stronger U.S. economy and rising interest rates will benefit the nation’s biggest banks. In fact, Berkshire is now a major shareholder in four of the five biggest U.S. banks - only Citi is not on the list - and he boosted his investments in Bank of America Corp. by 29 percent and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. by 38 percent (more below).
Berkshire entered new stakes in Oracle in the third quarter (41.4 million shares, or $2.1BN as of Sept 30) and put on a new bet on insurer Travelers (3.5 million shares, amounting to $460MM), which is somewhat surprising as it competes with Berkshire's own Geico unit. These new positions were offset by exits in his smallish positions in Walmart and Sanofi.
Buffett also boosted his stakes in Apple by 523K shares, bringing his total to 252.5MM shares, amounting to $57 billion as of Sept. 30, a number which is about 20% lower today, when the world's most valuable entered a bear market. Berkshire also added to its stakes in Bank of America, US Bancorp, Goldman, Bank of New York Mellon - in fact his 77.8 million stake makes him BoNY's top shareholder with a 7.9% stake in the custody bank - as well as Delta, and General Motors.
With these latest additions, Buffett is now the biggest shareholder in Bank of America, Bank of New York, Wells Fargo and US Bancorp.
Buffett also unexpectedly cut stakes in what was formerly his favorite bank, Wells Fargo, which is now his 3rd most valuable position at $23.2BN as of Sept 30, after top holding Apple and dropping behind Bank of America, his 2nd largest holding at the end of Q3 at $25.8BN as of Sept 30. Berkshire also cut stakes in Phillips 66, as well as several airlines including American Airlines, United Continental, and Southwest.
Warren Buffett - Berkshire Hathaway
Period: Q3 2018
Portfolio date: 30 Sep 2018
No. of stocks: 46
Portfolio value: $221,020,177,000
Portfolio date: 30 Sep 2018
No. of stocks: 46
Portfolio value: $221,020,177,000
| History | Stock | % of portfolio | Shares | Recent activity | Reported Price* | Value |
| ≡ | AAPL - Apple Inc. | 25.79 | 252,478,779 | Add 0.21% | $225.74 | $56,994,561,000 |
| ≡ | BAC - Bank of America Corp. | 11.69 | 877,248,600 | Add 29.20% | $29.46 | $25,843,745,000 |
| ≡ | WFC - Wells Fargo | 10.52 | 442,361,700 | Reduce 2.14% | $52.56 | $23,250,531,000 |
| ≡ | KO - Coca Cola Co. | 8.36 | 400,000,000 | $46.19 | $18,476,000,000 | |
| ≡ | KHC - Kraft Heinz Co. | 8.12 | 325,634,818 | $55.11 | $17,945,735,000 | |
| ≡ | AXP - American Express | 7.30 | 151,610,700 | $106.49 | $16,145,025,000 | |
| ≡ | USB - U.S. Bancorp | 2.98 | 124,923,092 | Add 24.06% | $52.81 | $6,597,189,000 |
| ≡ | MCO - Moody's Corp. | 1.87 | 24,669,778 | $167.20 | $4,124,787,000 | |
| ≡ | GS - Goldman Sachs Group | 1.86 | 18,353,635 | Add 38.47% | $224.24 | $4,115,619,000 |
| ≡ | JPM - JPMorgan Chase & Co. | 1.82 | 35,664,767 | Buy | $112.84 | $4,024,412,000 |
| ≡ | BK - Bank of New York | 1.80 | 77,849,476 | Add 20.14% | $50.99 | $3,969,546,000 |
| ≡ | DAL - Delta Air Lines Inc. | 1.71 | 65,535,000 | Add 2.94% | $57.83 | $3,789,889,000 |
| ≡ | LUV - Southwest Airlines | 1.58 | 56,047,399 | Reduce 0.88% | $62.45 | $3,500,160,000 |
| ≡ | DVA - DaVita HealthCare Partners | 1.25 | 38,565,570 | $71.63 | $2,762,452,000 | |
| ≡ | CHTR - Charter Communications | 1.08 | 7,340,985 | Reduce 2.17% | $325.88 | $2,392,280,000 |
| ≡ | UAL - United Continental Holdings | 1.05 | 25,984,542 | Reduce 2.62% | $89.06 | $2,314,183,000 |
| ≡ | ORCL - Oracle Corp. | 0.97 | 41,404,791 | Buy | $51.56 | $2,134,832,000 |
| ≡ | VRSN - Verisign Inc. | 0.94 | 12,952,745 | $160.12 | $2,073,994,000 | |
| ≡ | AAL - American Airlines Group Inc. | 0.82 | 43,700,000 | Reduce 2.24% | $41.33 | $1,806,121,000 |
| ≡ | GM - General Motors | 0.80 | 52,461,411 | Add 2.08% | $33.67 | $1,766,376,000 |
| ≡ | PSX - Phillips 66 | 0.79 | 15,433,024 | Reduce 55.56% | $112.72 | $1,739,611,000 |
| ≡ | USG - USG Corp. | 0.76 | 39,002,016 | $43.31 | $1,689,178,000 | |
| ≡ | V - Visa Inc. | 0.72 | 10,562,460 | $150.09 | $1,585,320,000 | |
| ≡ | LSXMK - Liberty SiriusXM Series C | 0.61 | 31,090,985 | $43.45 | $1,350,903,000 | |
| ≡ | MA - Mastercard Inc. | 0.50 | 4,934,756 | $222.61 | $1,098,526,000 | |
| ≡ | COST - Costco Co. | 0.46 | 4,333,363 | $234.88 | $1,017,820,000 | |
| ≡ | TEVA - Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. | 0.42 | 43,249,295 | $21.54 | $931,589,000 | |
| ≡ | MTB - M&T Bank Corp. | 0.40 | 5,382,040 | $164.54 | $885,561,000 | |
| ≡ | SIRI - Sirius XM Holdings Inc. | 0.39 | 137,915,729 | $6.32 | $871,627,000 | |
| ≡ | PNC - PNC Financial Services | 0.38 | 6,087,319 | Buy | $136.19 | $829,032,000 |
| ≡ | AXTA - Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. | 0.32 | 24,264,000 | $29.16 | $707,538,000 | |
| ≡ | LSXMA - Liberty Sirius XM Series A | 0.29 | 14,860,360 | $43.44 | $645,535,000 | |
| ≡ | SYF - Synchrony Financial | 0.29 | 20,803,000 | $31.08 | $646,557,000 | |
| ≡ | LBTYA - Liberty Global Inc. | 0.26 | 19,791,000 | $28.93 | $572,553,000 | |
| ≡ | TMK - Torchmark Corp. | 0.25 | 6,353,727 | $86.69 | $550,804,000 | |
| ≡ | QSR - Restaurant Brands International | 0.23 | 8,438,225 | $59.28 | $500,218,000 | |
| ≡ | STOR - STORE Capital Corp. | 0.23 | 18,621,674 | $27.79 | $517,496,000 | |
| ≡ | TRV - Travelers Companies Inc. | 0.21 | 3,543,688 | Buy | $129.71 | $459,652,000 |
| ≡ | LBTYK - Liberty Global Inc. C | 0.09 | 7,346,968 | $28.16 | $206,891,000 | |
| ≡ | LILA - Liberty LiLAC Group A | 0.03 | 2,714,854 | $20.84 | $56,578,000 | |
| ≡ | JNJ - Johnson & Johnson | 0.02 | 327,100 | $138.17 | $45,195,000 | |
| ≡ | MDLZ - Mondelez International | 0.01 | 578,000 | $42.96 | $24,831,000 | |
| ≡ | PG - Procter & Gamble | 0.01 | 315,400 | $83.23 | $26,251,000 | |
| ≡ | LILAK - Liberty LiLAC Group C | 0.01 | 1,284,020 | $20.63 | $26,489,000 | |
| ≡ | UPS - United Parcel Service | 0.00 | 59,400 | $116.75 | $6,935,000 | |
| ≡ | VZ - Verizon Communications | 0.00 | 928 | $53.88 | $50,000 |
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