Fuente: Jeffrey A. Hirsch
Last month we featured our late-July to October seasonal trade on Natural Gas well in advance of the usual seasonal low. Now that the nat gas season is underway, we have some solid technical indications that nat gas has bottomed and is ready to rally. In addition, geopolitical turmoil has put a floor in on energy, hurricane season is picking up and the air conditioners are cranking as the summer heats up.
We believe a secular low in gas was made in the spring of 2012 just below $2 and that this recent low in the $3.50-$4.00 area in the new support zone. You can see in the graph below of nat gas futures and First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas (FCG) that gas is bottoming at this juncture rather in line with its seasonal trend, making for a nice setup. Other technical indicators (MACD, Stochastics and Relative Strength) have all turned positive. Plus, the COT report shows the commercial hedgers, the “insiders”, getting longer in recent weeks.
So with the fundamental story for gas strong as the most accessible clean energy lining up with a strong seasonality and compelling technical picture we like three ETFs that take advantage of the bullish environment in natural gas.
We believe a secular low in gas was made in the spring of 2012 just below $2 and that this recent low in the $3.50-$4.00 area in the new support zone. You can see in the graph below of nat gas futures and First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas (FCG) that gas is bottoming at this juncture rather in line with its seasonal trend, making for a nice setup. Other technical indicators (MACD, Stochastics and Relative Strength) have all turned positive. Plus, the COT report shows the commercial hedgers, the “insiders”, getting longer in recent weeks.
So with the fundamental story for gas strong as the most accessible clean energy lining up with a strong seasonality and compelling technical picture we like three ETFs that take advantage of the bullish environment in natural gas.
-FCG mentioned above is a basket of the top pure nat gas explores and producers.
-United States Natural Gas (UNG) is a futures-based ETF that holds near term futures contracts and track nat gas prices to a “T”.
-And Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) hold all the big oil and gas energy names.
Disclosure Note: At press time, officers of the Hirsch Organization, or accounts they control held positions in FCG, UNG, and XLE.
Su contado muestra varias síntomas de debilidad:
Primero pierde directriz alcista, segundo corte de la muerte 50/200 y, no ha roto directriz bajista de precio ni de RSI.
El giro de precio al alza invita a entrar al rebote indudablemente y se puede entrar claro que si, pero habría que ejecutar stop loss al tick si pierde el último mínimo realizado porque el precio objetivo sería 3.1 USD.
The above chart represents the seasonality for Natural Gas Futures (NG) Continuous Contract for the past 19 years.
- Date range: January 1, 1991 to December 31, 2009
- Type: Commodity Futures – US
- Symbol: NG
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