Fuente: Adam Hamilton Safehaven.com
The recent extreme gold-futures selling hammered gold to a 4.5-year low, a far-shorter span than the 11.3-year HUI gulf. The last time gold traded in the $1140s in April 2010, the HUI was between 425 and 450. Without today's unbridled explosion of fear, I strongly suspect that's exactly where gold stocks would be trading again. HUI 400 or maybe even 350 could easily be considered righteous and rational, but 150? No way.
Last week the HGR actually slumped to 0.128x. In other words, the price level of the HUI was trading at just over 1/8th the gold price. This secular HGR chart really highlights just how anomalous and extreme that is. Even during 2008's once-in-a-century stock panic, the biggest fear event most of us will ever witness in our lifetimes, the HGR merely plunged to 0.207x. Today's gold-stock bearishnesseven exceeds that.
To gain that critical perspective showing how fundamentally-absurd today's apocalyptic gold-stock prices are, consider some long-term comparisons. Before the Fed launched its hyper-manipulative QE3 to wildly distort global financial markets, the normal years in the post-panic era were 2009 to 2012. During that span, the HGR averaged 0.346x. Merely to mean revert to there, the HUI would have to soar 169% higher!
Fuente: www.safehaven.com/article/35800/gold-stock-apocalypse
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario