Este año el SP500 va a terminar en negativo...con un 70% de probabilidad

$SPX $SPY January Declines of 3% or More Precede Full-Year Losses 66.7% of Time
By Christopher Mistal



Markets are on course for their worst January since 2010 with S&P 500 down 3.6% so far this year. Historically speaking, the S&P 500 has been down 3% or more 18 times since 1938 (20 times since 1930) with full-year losses following in 12 years. The worst January on record occurred in 2009 as the worst bear market since the Great Depression was nearing its end. Aside from 2009, 2010 was the only other year to produce a double-digit full-year gain following a 3% or greater loss in January. All other years were essentially flat or down. Declines continued into February 50% of the time (9 of 18 years). 







Este gráfico es de 1929, traza igual que el actual......Fuente: DeMark/Mclellan's 1929 Analog